Post Traumatic Stress Disorder Essay [ Free Example ]

Post Traumatic Stress Disorder Essay Traumatic events can shape a person’s life and cause untold stress and pain for long periods of time. Natural disasters occur and can affect a person’s life in terms of losing their home, causing long-term injuries, and creating a sense of instability. Betty has experienced a powerful tornado that ravaged her home and led to her husband breaking his leg. This essay will focus on post traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) assessment and treatment options for someone like Betty to enable her stabilize herself and find ways to positively cope with such trauma. 1. The first thing to understand is the difference between screening and assessment. Screening involves a typical yes or no answer and evaluation for possible existence of a specific problem. An assessment on the other hand is a process used to define the nature of an issue, determination of diagnosis, and development of specific treatment recommendations to help address diagnosis/issue. Because Betty experienced a traumatic event that result in long-term consequences like losing a home and her husband’s surgery and physical therapy, the first two questions should focus on identifying whether she may display symptoms of PTSD. The key reason for PTSD as a possible diagnosis is her re-experiencing of symptoms. Betty stated she relives what happens to her frequently. While she did not say, she has night terrors, or unwanted daytime memories, it seems her reliving the events points to this. Reliving events that are often accompanied by guilt, grief, or other intense emotions can signal PTSD. PTSD is also diagnosed typically following a crisis. â€Å"Both Panic Disorder and PTSD are two subtypes within Anxiety Disorders that often are associated with crises† (Cavaiola Colford, 2011, p. 132). Therefore, the first question would be: â€Å"Do you experience nightmares, flashbacks, or daydreams? If so, what feelings are invoked when you they occur?† This two-part question would be used to confirm what has already been stated by Betty. It will demonstrate she is reliving the trauma in forms that potentially signal PTSD. The answers will also serve as the basis for the PTSD diagnosis. The next question will center on avoidance symptoms because traumatized individuals try and avoid situations, people, or events that could harken back the trauma experienced. Betty stated her husband needs to have surgery and therapy. She also stated she experiences guilt because she feels she caused her husband’s injury. The question would then be: â€Å"What are you trying to avoid, if at all, concerning the night of the tornado?† If she answers her husband, this can help determine the source of her guilt and anxiety and hopefully will be a means of providing treatment recommendations. The next question would center around arousal symptoms. While Betty has not stated any substance abuse, she may be experiencing some arousal symptoms like feeling easily startled, jumpy, reacting to loud noises, insomnia, and diminished cognitive ability. The 3rd question would then be: â€Å"What kinds of behaviors have you exhibited after the tornado?† If Betty needed clarification, some of the arousal symptoms may be provided as examples. This way, she can understand and communicate what has happened to her lately. One important clue of her having arousal symptoms is her inability to sleep due to reliving the traumas. The fourth question will focus on depression. This is because she has experienced something that has destroyed much of her everyday life. She has nowhere to live, her husband is injured, and she cannot function in the way she could before. The fourth question would then be: â€Å"Do you feel hopeless, and if so, why?† People often with PTSD experience depression. Some also experience anxiety disorders and substance abuse. The assessment questions must include a possible diagnosis of depression in order to help Betty deal with any potential hurdles in the future. The fifth and final question will focus on potential depressive symptoms such as lack of concentration and thoughts of hurting herself. The question would be: â€Å"Have you had thoughts of hurting yourself or trouble concentrating on things? What are you having trouble concentrating on? This two-part question will allow the assessment to help navigate what Betty is having trouble with and enable development of a treatment plan/recommendation that will allow her to get back some of the autonomy and independence she had before the tornado. Because Betty was such a prominent figure prior to the tornado, she needs to incorporate some of her former self and former actions into the rebuilding of herself and her life. 2. The diagnosis code that would be used to diagnose Betty would be (PTSD) DSM-5 309.81 (F43.10). Because Betty experienced symptoms after a traumatic event (the tornado), her symptoms fall under PTSD. While the assessment questions included a potential additional diagnosis of depression, research suggests depression in those that suffer from PTSD may come after the individual experiences a state of ‘emotional numbing’. â€Å"Emotional numbing symptom cluster was more strongly related to depression (P lt; .001) and worse mental health-related functioning (P lt; .001) than other symptom clusters, while the externalizing behavior symptom cluster was more strongly related to hostility (P lt; .001)†Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   (Tsai et al., 2015, p. 546). Betty does not appear to display emotional numbing. She feels guilty, she is worried. Therefore, she most likely is not depressed yet. Now that the diagnosis is PTSD, assessment of her issues and her subsequent needs will be able to allow for a suitable recommendation for treatment for Betty. The two main issues Betty is dealing with are her husband’s surgery and physical therapy and her search for a new home. She feels guilty because her actions (shoving her husband into the basement), led to his leg breaking and then requiring surgery. She needs help in the form of an in-home physical therapy or personal care attendant to facilitate her husband’s recovery. In relation to finding a new home, because of the tornado, she feels displaced and lacking any foundation from which to recover from her ordeal. Help for her in the form of cognitive behavioral therapy may help her create positive coping mechanisms in order to effectively deal with the stress of her condition and prepare to find a new home and establish herself after the tornado. 3. The kinds of multidisciplinary referrals needed would be for two things, the first is helping Betty cope with her new life post tornado by establishing healthy coping mechanisms for the stress she must endure to stabilize herself and find a new home. Many that have experienced a traumatic event turn to cognitive behavioral therapy as a treatment option. â€Å"Cognitive-behavioral therapy for postdisaster distress (CBT-PD) is a transdiagnostic intervention that has been used following major disasters such as the 9/11 terrorist attacks and Hurricane Katrina† (Hamblen, Norris, Symon, Bow, 2016, p. 1). The second would be for a social worker so she can be provided options to help deal with her husband’s current state of health. He needs someone there long-term to help him with physical therapy. Betty may have to apply for additional health insurance to cover the costs or see if there is a less expensive alternative to the physical therapy. Physical therapy may cost less if it is done in the home rather than in a medical office. Research has proven cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT), to be helpful for sufferers of PTSD. â€Å"Participants who received intervention early (i.e., 10 to 15 months after Sandy) had the same improvement as those who received it later. Similarly, there was no difference in outcome between individuals with severe as compared with moderate distress at pretreatment† (Hamblen, Norris, Symon, Bow, 2016, p. 1). Because Betty’s immediate problems are with her husband, and the notion that CBT can be helpful later, it would be most beneficial for Betty to get the CBT referral after she deals with her husband’s problem. His problem requires immediate attention and may help Betty resolve some of the guilty feelings she’s had since the event. A social worker referral and a referral for cognitive behavioral therapy may help Betty combat the stress that comes from experiencing trauma and help her resolve the long-term problem she has in dealing with her husband’s health condition. She stated she cannot afford long-term physical therapy for her husband. Perhaps with the events that happened, she may qualify for some assistance. She may also be able to apply for health insurance for her husband and discover alternative options for physical therapy that cost less. It is of high priority that the burden Betty feels concerning her husband is alleviated as it can add to the anxiety and sleep problems she has had from PTSD. One article identifies the risk factors and need for practical assessment strategies to help address the needs of the caregiver and the care recipient. Risk factors for caregiver burden include female sex, low educational attainment, residence with the care recipient, higher number of hours spent caregiving, depression, social isolation, financial stress, and lack of choice in being a caregiver. Practical assessment strategies for caregiver burden exist to evaluate caregivers, their care recipients, and the care recipient’s overall caregiving needs (Adelman, Tmanova, Delgado, Dion, Lachs, 2014, p. 1052). A social worker can help Betty apply for health insurance for her husband that may alleviate the costs of both the surgery and the physical therapy. Additional services should the husband gain better health insurance would be to have a personal care attendant help him in daily tasks. These two main referrals help resolve the immediate and long-term problems Betty may experience from the tornado-related trauma. She will be able to help her husband through the help of a social worker. She then will be able to help herself with CBT therapy. Each of these referrals not only help Betty, but also her husband in achieving the level of stability they need. 4. As mentioned earlier, research suggests CBT is an effective treatment option for those with PTSD. The specific kind of CBT that would be useful in the case of Betty is trauma-focused CBT. â€Å"Trauma-Focused Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy (TF-CBT) was originally developed for children who had been sexually abused and their non-offending caretakers. TF-CBT was the only intervention that achieved the â€Å"well-established† criteria for efficacy† (Mannarino, Cohen, Deblinger, 2013, p. 165). Since Betty experienced severe trauma due to losing her home and unintentionally injuring her husband as a result of a tornado, she would stand to benefit greatly from this kind of intervention. While TF-CBT was originally used for children, research suggests adults have also experienced positive results from implementation of TF-CBT. One 2014 study suggested marked improvement in PTSD symptoms following this kind of intervention. Nine people (5 females and 4 males, mean age 53 years old who had received on average 12 sessions of Trauma-Focused-CBT) who reported a significant reduction in their symptoms following treatment of PTSD took part in semi-structured interviews. Interpretative phenomenological analysis identified five themes: Living with Symptoms before Therapy; Feeling Ready for Therapy; Being Involved; Bringing About Therapeutic Change; and Life After Therapy (Lowe Murray, 2014, p. 231). With the evidence suggesting the high rate of efficacy, TF-CBT is the first and main intervention that should be used for Betty’s recovery. It will help her reduce her symptoms she has experienced following the traumatic event. It can help her become aware of any emotions she has not resolved since the traumatic event. Finally, it will give her an opportunity to deal with any painful memories that she experienced while the tornado hit her home. The next possible intervention is coping skills therapy. While TF-CBT may cover the bulk of problems that Betty may experience due to PTSD, coping skills therapy may help in preventing her from turning to negative behaviors or coping mechanisms to deal with the stress and problems she currently faces. One study examining the effective of coping skills therapy on PTSD showed marked improvement in sufferers in terms of symptoms and interpersonal problems. â€Å"We found medium to large effect sizes for improvements in PTSD symptoms, general psychopathology, and interpersonal problems at end-of-treatment, all of which were sustained at follow-up† (Kaiser et al., 2015, p. 401). Developing positive coping skills is important in any case of psychological trauma. If Betty does not learn how to properly deal with the various symptoms she is experiencing, she could spiral down and become depressed. She may also not be able to handle the responsibilities she has, prompting her condition to worsen. She must deal with her problems in a positive and effective way if she is to successfully handle the trauma of the tornado. The third and final intervention that can help someone like Betty get past her experienced trauma is a pharmacological-based intervention. Betty states she has trouble sleeping because she relives the events of the trauma. Zaleplon while not used as treatment for PTSD, may serve to help that need sleep but do not want decreased responsiveness. â€Å"†¦because of its short length of action, zaleplon may be a good choice for those traumatized individuals who are particularly concerned about sedation and decreased responsiveness to threats† (Briere Scott, 2014, p. 319). It is a short-term solution to help Betty get some rest so she can make sound decisions for her future. The three interventions listed are treatment options that deal with both the short-term and long-term effects of PTSD. These interventions are TF-CBT, coping skills therapy, and a prescription of Zaleplon for sleep. Betty will be able to reduce her PTSD-related symptoms with such treatment options. She will also be able to get immediate relief in terms of sleeping. This will hopefully lead to her developing positive coping skills and have the fortitude to continue on and build a solid foundation after experiencing the events of the tornado. Conclusion In conclusion, Betty may have PTSD. To help Betty deal with the symptoms of PTSD, she needs TF-CBT as a main intervention, along with coping skills therapy, and a prescription of Zaleplon. Referrals for Betty must be aimed towards helping her address her to main concerns. Those concerns are symptoms of PTSD and her husband’s health. A referral to a social worker can help Betty gain information and possible strategies to help her deal with her husband’s surgery and subsequent need for physical therapy. A CBT referral can help her cope with the symptoms of PTSD. References Adelman,  R.  D., Tmanova,  L.  L., Delgado,  D., Dion,  S., Lachs,  M.  S. (2014). Caregiver Burden.  JAMA,  311(10), 1052. doi:10.1001/jama.2014.304 Briere,  J., Scott,  C. (2014).  Principles of trauma therapy: A guide to symptoms, evaluation, and treatment. Cavaiola,  A.  A., Colford,  J.  E. (2011).  Crisis intervention case book. Belmont, CA: Brooks/Cole Cengage Learning. Hamblen,  J.  L., Norris,  F.  H., Symon,  K.  A., Bow,  T.  E. (2016). Cognitive Behavioral Therapy for Postdisaster Distress: A Promising Transdiagnostic Approach to Treating Disaster Survivors.  Psychological Trauma: Theory, Research, Practice, and Policy. doi:10.1037/tra0000221 Kaiser,  D., Grundmann,  J., Schulze,  C., Stubenvoll,  M., Kosar,  M., Junker,  M., †¦ Schà ¤fer,  I. (2015). A Pilot Study of Seeking Safety in a Sample of German Women Outpatients with Substance Dependence and Posttraumatic Stress Disorder.  Journal of Psychoactive Drugs,  47(5), 401-408. doi:10.1080/02791072.2015.1090644 Lowe,  C., Murray,  C. (2014). Adult Service-Users’ Experiences of Trauma-Focused Cognitive Behavioural Therapy.  Journal of Contemporary Psychotherapy,  44(4), 223–231. Mannarino,  A.  P., Cohen,  J.  A., Deblinger,  E. (2013, October 9). Trauma-Focused Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy Springer. Retrieved from http://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-94-007-7404-9_10 Tsai,  J., Harpaz-Rotem,  I., Armour,  C., Southwick,  S.  M., Krystal,  J.  H., Pietrzak,  R.  H. (2015). Dimensional structure of DSM-5 posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms: results from the National Health and Resilience in Veterans Study.  The Journal of Clinical Psychiatry,  76(5), 546-553. doi:10.4088/jcp.14m09091 View or Download this full document in (.docx) format. --> Open Full Document Open full document and source list OR Order A Custom Written Essay Order a one-of-a-kind custom essay on this topic

Ancient Egypt and Copyright Slater - 1717 Words

CONTENTS INTRODUCTION UNIT 2 READING The IELTS Reading Test Instructions for Test Practice Reading Test 1 Reading Test 2 Reading Test 3 Reading Test 4 Reading Test 5 Reading Test 6 Fast Track Reading Learn from your mistakes How can I improve? Tips from test-takers Sample Answer Page (Listening and Reading) 2 3 4 18 30 42 54 66 79 81 82 84 85 86 APPENDIX Answer Key: Listening IELTS PRACTICE TESTS 6 COMPLETE READING TESTS Topics that are interesting, durable and even controversial have been favoured for inclusion. The aim has been to encourage critical thinking and discussion in IELTS preparation classrooms. All three tests are at a level comparable to the actual IELTS but the later tests pose a slightly higher level of challenge than†¦show more content†¦The research also confirms, for the first time, that dogs are descended only from wolves and do not share DNA with coyotes or jackals. The fact that our companionship with dogs now appears to go back at least 100,000 years means that this partnership may have played an important part in the development of human hunting techniques that developed 70,000 to 90,000 years ago. It also may even have affected the brain development in both species. The Australian veterinarian David Paxton suggests that in that period of first contact, people did not so much domesticate wolves as wolves domesticated people. Wolves may have started living at the edge of human settlements as scavengers, eating scraps of food and waste. Some learned to live with human beings in a mutually helpful way and gradually evolved into dogs. At the very least, they would have protected human settlements, and given warnings by barking at anything approaching. The wolves that evolved into dogs have been enormously successful in evolutionary terms. They are found everywhere in the inhabited world, hundreds of millions of them. The descendants of the wolves that remained wolves are now sparsely distributed, often in endangered populations. IELTS on Track ACADEMIC READING e-BOOK 54 Copyright  © Slater, Millen Passage 3 You should spend about 20 minutes on Questions 27–40 which are based on thisShow MoreRelatedImpact of Emerging Markets on Marketing15122 Words   |  61 Pagesof goods and services called â€Å"commerce† has been a central concern of society for endless centuries. Humans realized long ago that creating a centrally located â€Å"hub† for such exchange was the most efficient way to organize commerce. As a result, ancient civilizations often flourished around cities rather than countries. Athens, Rome, Babylon, Venice, and Florence—all city-based Western civilizations—were also major trading centers of their time. Each had a natural location advantage around whichRead MoreExploring Corporate Strategy - Case164366 Words   |  658 Pages5 0.5 100.0 22,737,500 364,270,713 290,121,957 18,203,500 225,801,428 79,033,597 17,690,762 1,018,057,389 2.5 9.9 35.9 9.6 68.1 14.3 52.9 15.7 2.2 35.7 28.5 1.8 22.2 7.8 1.8 100.0 Source: http://www.internetworldstats.com/stats.htm. Copyright  © 2005, Miniwatts Marketing Group. All rights reserved worldwide. Exhibit 8 Revenue (US$,000) Amazon eBay Barnes and Noble Yahoo! Apple Wal-Mart Google Competitor revenue comparisons, 1999–2005 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1,639

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Creative Writing A Short Story - 764 Words

How about, instead, I invite Glenn over and the two of us will watch, then send you a written critique with recommendations for improvement, Brett grinned as he tweaked Elenas nipple, his enjoyment of her reaction to that paling in comparison to the squeal she emitted when her panties landed on his neighbours doorstep. He shrugged when she glanced back, To apologise for all that noise you made last night. After theyd entered his apartment and hed stopped on his way to the kitchen to pirouette around, he was uncertain of which of the offered options shed choose. Would Elena suck him off to completion right there, his urgent need for relief not all helped by the way her tight ass cheeks had flexed against his hardon with each step†¦show more content†¦If Brett hadnt already been fully erect, the sight that greeted him would swiftly have fixed that. Elena was spread out on the king-size flanked on either side by mahogany dressers, the top drawers of which each were locked, fully exposed to him and hand between her legs. The man released a groan as his aching cock twitched, and almost dropped the ice-bucket on the floor. I thought I said not to start without me. Bretts voice was husky and he barely managed to croak the words, gaze briefly meeting Elenas before it slid back down to the heels she still wore, and then halfway back up to witness her fingers dip in and out of her glistening cunt. Transfixed by the view, he had no idea how long he stood there before he eventually forced himself to move. Brett approached the bed, placed the ice-bucket and two glasses on the dresser adjacent to Elena, and gripped her wrist. He pulled it away from between her legs and smirked down. So, youll need to pay for that as well. 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Analysis Of Chrysanthemums By John Steinbeck - 971 Words

Chrysanthemums† has many different ideas of what women’s roles are in today’s society. I think one of the key themes is gender inequality. Elisa is a passionate, independent, and a beautiful person inside and out. And no matter what she does or says, her husband will never see her for more than an object. Because the story is written through Elisa’s point of view and is set in 1938. Because of this, it really portrays where women stood at that time. Taking place during winter in Salinas Valley, California readers can imagine the thick fog over that Christmas day. We get to know Henry, Elisa’s husband, right away when his aggressive and rude mannerisms show when he enters on stage. We can then also immediately feel how timid and obeying Elisa is. As the story goes on, we learn all about the way of life for Elisa. We can see how author, John Steinbeck wants readers to feel and why he writes in Elisa’s point of view. This theme is very important because it shows how females cannot only be undermined, but ignored a lot of the time. The theme is also important because if readers do not pick up on the overall theme of how women and men and not equal they can easily miss what this story is about and see this as a pointless story. This theme is very significant to my own personal core beliefs. I think this story is very inspiring and should remind male and female readers about how the world has changed today and what is accepted. Coming from a household of all females I wasShow MoreRelatedThe Chrysanthemums By John Steinbeck Analysis935 Words   |  4 PagesIn John Steinbeck‘s short story â€Å"The Chrysanthemums † Elisa Gives off the impression that she is not satisfied with her life. She can’t put a finger on her source of discomfort, but knows that she is not quite satisfied with how her life is continuing. 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This is an important story as it expresses women in a way that is more realistic, showing their true boredom, ambition, and capabilities. Some scholars interpreted this story differently, but C. Kenneth Pellow interprets it as â€Å"radically feministic.† The Great Depression was fi nally ending and women’s rights were risingRead MoreEssay on Analysis of The Chrysanthemums1139 Words   |  5 PagesAnalysis of The Chrysanthemums The short story The Chrysanthemums gives insight into the life of its author. John Steinbeck was born on February 27, 1902, in Salinas, California. The locale of the story is of key resemblance to the Salinas in which Steinbeck was born and bread. Salinas was a typical American small town, [differing] only in location and a few distinctive features (McCarthy 3). The protagonist of this story, Elisa Allen, also resembles Steinbecks first wife. SteinbeckRead MoreCharacter Analysis the Chrysanthemums1220 Words   |  5 PagesEngl. 1302 April 15, 2013 Paper 1 Character Analysis â€Å"The Chrysanthemums† by John Steinbeck John Steinbeck was born in 1902 and lived during what is said to be the most troubled time in American history. Steinbeck was alive during the Dust Bowl paired with the Great Depression, which is believed to be the reason for his almost melancholiac tone in some of his works but he seemed a very diverse writer. Along with â€Å"The Chrysanthemums†, Steinbeck is the author of the well-known and famous novelRead More The Chrysanthemums Essay1649 Words   |  7 PagesJohn Steinbeck’s, The Chrysanthemums, was published in 1938 in a book of short stories, entitled The Long Valley. The Chrysanthemums has been a rather powerful draw for scholars because of its wide gap for interpretations and analysis of its main protagonist character, Elisa Allen and also the unique descriptions used to portray the deeper meaning behind the setting of the story. Themes of sexuality, oppression of women, as well as other numerous types of conflict portrayed in this rather somber

Simulation Free Essays

string(57) " the profit before tax or 1 5 percent times the revenue\." SLIP is a privately held investment corporation founded in 1961. It had become a diversified company consisting of a total of 9 subsidiaries. The oldest three were In the home products business: a Virginia-based brass software company, an outdoor lantern company based In Maine, and an antique reproduction furniture company in Maryland. We will write a custom essay sample on Simulation or any similar topic only for you Order Now A second group of four subsidiaries formed in the sass’s was focused on research in the fields of consumer product marketing, computer software, tax research, and investment financial analysis. Hoping to capitalize on their tax and investment expertise, they recently armed Spring Lane Development Corporation and Spring Lane Natural Resources, which were Involved In real estate development natural resource exploration, respectively. Spring Lane employed a total of 525 people and had revenues of $30 million in 1987. Spring Lane Natural Resources was formed to pursue natural resource exploration because SLIP management felt that favorable tax laws provided them opportunities to achieve significant profits In this arena. Their primary goal was to find and produce natural gas from shale, to capture the so-called â€Å"Section 29† tax credits associated with such gas. Ingress passed this tax credit In 1978 as part of the Natural Gas Policy Act in order to stimulate drilling for natural gas found in shale. Although natural gas exploration was clearly riskier than their other investments, SLIP felt the risks could be managed by drilling only sites that were surrounded on three or four sides by existing wells. To date, SLUR had drilled four wells. It wasn’t difficult operationally to drill the wells, but It was challenging to find enough high- quality investment opportunities. In the first five months of production, one of the wells had already paid back 52 percent of its initial investment well ahead of the argue payout. The other wells were also doing quite well and all were on schedule for meeting their target return on investment. SLUR hopes to drill 20 more wells in 1988. Formed. This gave SLUR full responsibility for choosing the sites and managing the well if gas was found. SLUR would retain about 25 percent ownership and sell the rest to several general partners. As managing general partner, SLUR was responsible for hiring a general contractor who would do the drilling. Slur’s geologist, Brad Thomas, would determine whether there was enough gas to make it worth completing the well. If he decided to go ahead, the general contractor would be in charge of the day-to-day operations of the well. SLUR had entered into a Joint venture with Excel Energy of Bridgeport, West Virginia, in which it was agreed that Excel would act as the general contractor for all of Slur’s wells in West Virginia. Excel also agreed to take a small ownership interest in each of these wells. The Bailey Prospect: Base Case Analysis Exhibit 1 is a copy of the spreadsheet developed by Lisa Weatherboard to analyze the Bailey Prospect. The Bailey Prospect is surrounded by four producing wells from the target gas formation. Thus, SLUR was pretty confident that they would hit the gas formation, but they were mindful that there is always a possibility that due to geological anomalies (e. G. , drilling into a fault), a well might fail and result in zero production. Brad Thomas (the geologist) estimated the probability of this kind of failure at the Bailey Prospect to be about 10 percent. If they were successful, SLUR would sell the gas to pipeline distributors who would pay a price for the gas that depends on the BTU content of the gas. [2] The BTU content of the gas would not be known until the well was producing, but once reducing, the BTU content would not change over the lifetime of the well. Brad Thomas estimated the BTU content of the gas to be 55 BTU per cubic foot; this was the average of the BTU contents at the nearby wells. The current price paid by the pipeline is $1. 90 per AMBIT (million BTU); the price paid by the pipeline would be tied to the market prices for gas and, hence, might change over time. 3] Lisa assumed that prices would grow with inflation over time. [4] The rate at which gas would flow from the well would not be known until the well was completed. Brad estimated that the gas would initially flow at a rate of 33,000 Mac thousand cubic feet) per year and then decline following the schedule shown in Exhibit 1. The spreadsheet shown in Exhibi t 1 is essentially an income statement over the life of the well. (The spreadsheet goes out 25 years; only the first 13 years are shown in the exhibit. ) The gross revenue is the price per Mac of gas times the Mac of gas produced in a given year. To get to net cash flows, royalties, expenses, and taxes must be deducted: 1) From gross revenue, a 12. 5 percent royalty payment to the owner of the mineral rights is deducted, leaving net revenue. This royalty rate was the standard argental pall to ten property owners In ten west Valhalla area. 2) Excel Energy would be paid approximately $300 per month to operate the well. Lisa had budgeted an additional $3,000 per year for other expenses associated with the lease that might be incurred but couldn’t now be accurately forecast. These costs were increased annually to reflect inflation. 3) Local taxes of 4. Percent times the gross revenue would be paid to the county and a severance tax[5] of 3. 4 percent would be paid to the state of West Virginia. 4) Depreciation expense for year O equaled the intangible drilling cost[6], which as 72. 5 percent times the total well cost. The remainder of the drilling cost would be depreciated on a straight-line basis over seven years. 5) To co mpute profit after tax, depletion[7], and state and federal income taxes were subtracted from profit before tax. Numerically, depletion was the smaller of 50 percent times the profit before tax or 1 5 percent times the revenue. You read "Simulation" in category "Papers" ) The state income tax equaled the tax rate multiplied by the difference between profit before tax and depletion. This tax was then reduced by a credit equal to one- half of the severance tax paid to the state. ) Federal income tax was calculated by multiplying the tax rate times the profit before tax less depletion and state tax paid. The federal tax was then reduced by an energy tax credit as allowed in Section 29 of the tax code: the tax credit was determined by multiplying the current tax credit rate ($0. 76 per AMBIT in year 1) by the amount of qualifying production that year. The tax credit rate was increased each year with inflation, but its future value was in the hands of Congress and far from certain. The after-tax cash flow is given by adding back depreciation and depletion to the after-tax profit. Finally, there is the issue of the lease bonus. A lease bonus is a cash payment or bonus paid too landowner in exchange for the drilling and mineral rights. The proposed drilling area at the Bailey Prospect lies on a farm where the owners Mr.. And Mrs.. Bryan Cotter had been reluctant to allow drilling on their land; this is why the surrounding areas were developed and this property was not. Mr.. Cotter had recently passed away and Mrs.. Cotter (at the urging of her children) was now willing to allow drilling and production on her land. Though no offer had yet been made, SLUR had proposed offering Mrs.. Cotter a bonus of $40,000; the lease bonuses for similar properties in the area had been in this range. Financially, if the well is successful, the lease bonus comes directly off the bottom line, providing no tax deductions or depreciation. [8] on ten Dad’s AT tense mummers, ten prospect looked good It NAS an rater-tax equity payback period of about 35 months and an internal rate of return of about 29%. To calculate the net present value (NP), Lisa discounted the cash flows using a discount rate of 15 percent, which was Slice’s hurdle rate for projects like this. The result was an NP of approximately $79,000. Your Assignment Your boss, Steve Bodily, had presented the results of Alias’s analysis to Henry Oysters, a potential general partner. Oysters was impressed with the base-case scenario, but was very concerned about the potential downside risks. â€Å"What if the well doesn’t work? How do you know that it will produce that much gas? What if gas prices continue their recent decline? Just about every number in here is a guess. † Bodily was prepared for the first question and knew that, if the well failed, the pretax loss would be approximately $170,000 the cost of drilling the well plus the lease bonus or a net after-tax loss of Bodily was not prepared for the other questions but promised Oysters that he would get back to him with a complete description of the risks associated with the Bailey Prospect. The goal wasn’t Just to evaluate the Bailey Prospect but, more generally, to get a better understanding of the risks associated with the kinds of investments SLUR was pursuing. Since Lisa Weatherboard is out of town, Bodily came to you and asked you to examine the risks associated with the Bailey Prospect. Your report will go to SLIP as well as to Oysters. In your conversation with Bodily, he posed the following questions: ) What are the key risks here? 2) What is the project’s expected NP taking into account all of these risks? 3) How risky is this project? What is the chance that we have a negative NP on this? 4) How big lease bonus can we afford? Not that I plan to offer Mrs.. Cotter more than $40,000, but it would be good to know how far we can go and still make money. ) What if the Section 29 credit goes away? Congress has been making some noise about that lately. 6) What if the well fails? While we’ve got the crew out there, should we drill another well? 7) Finally, I know that you don’t have time to run numbers for our whole portfolio f properties, but suppose we had 20 opportunities Just like the Bailey Prospect, how risky would this portfolio be? Which would the key uncertainties be? A qualitative discussion will suffice: we don’t need hard numbers on this, but we should be prepared Tort ten question. Bodily concluded, â€Å"Those are the kinds of things that come to mind. Of course, I haven’t had much time to think about it and could be missing some important issues. I’ve scheduled a meeting with Oysters and some of the SLIP partners for next Thursday. Could you prepare a 20-minute presentation on this for then? Good. Thanks. I’ll be out of town until then. If you have any questions about doing these kinds of analyses, you might try Jack Grayson. He’s done a lot of these risk analyses and will be at the meeting on Thursday. You might want to talk to Brad Thomas as well. Additional Information Fortunately, Brad Thomas (the geologist) was available and offered to help. As far as drilling another well in the event the first one fails, Thomas said, â€Å"Yeah, that might be a good idea. A second well would be cheaper to drill. Of course, it would also be less likely to succeed. If the second one fails too, it would be pointless to drill a third ell. â₠¬  He estimated the cost of drilling the second well to be roughly 75% of the cost of drilling the first well â€Å"you don’t have to truck all the drilling equipment out again and you don’t have to pay another lease bonus. The cost of completing a second well (if successful) would be the same as the cost of completing the first. Thomas estimated the probability of the second well succeeding (given that the first fails) to be . 50. He also indicated that, if the first well fails, he would revise his estimated initial flow rate down by a third. The decline rate would remain the same. Thomas also indicated that it would not make sense to drill a second well if the first is successful since the two wells would be draining the same area. A second well would speed production you’d get roughly twice as much production at first but you probably double the decline rate as well and end up with about the same total amount of gas (maybe slightly more) and be stuck with t wice the drilling cost. † On the other issues Thomas said, â€Å"Yeah, this business is pretty much a crap shoot. I’m a geologist. I can’t tell you much about Congress or natural gas prices, but I did work up some ranges on the estimates I gave Lisa. See Exhibit 2. ) I’ve found that I give better estimates if I think about the ranges before I give a particular value. I actually keep track of my estimates and then later see how I did. While I don’t always get the right answer, my ranges are pretty good. † These ranges, Thomas says, can be interpreted as 10th and 90th percentiles numbers such that there is a I-in-10 chance that the true value will be below and above these amounts. The base case numbers used in Alias’s spreadsheet can be interpreted as 50th percentiles or medians. â€Å"Let me know if you need anything else. † Jack Grayson at SLIP could only offer general advice. As far as developing ranges for the other uncertainties, use your Judgment. I can send you some historical data on inflation and natural gas prices (see Exhibit 3), but looking forward we’ll have to guess. If it is important, I may be able to get you more information next week. I know a consultant won may De addle to Nell us Walt ten gas price Toreros t. He could probably get us more on inflation too. I also know a lawyer in D. C. Who has been working with the IRS on Section 29 issues. She might be able to tell us more about that. But I don’t want to call these people unless it is important. Let’s talk on Monday ND we can decide then whether to call them. † Grayson also suggested that you should be careful about the discount rate. â€Å"The 15 percent rate that Lisa used is risk adjusted – it informally adjusts for the possibility that the well fails, uncertainty about operating costs, etc. Since you are going to explicitly model these risks, you should use a lower discount rate. Because all of these risks with this investment – including natural gas prices – are pretty much uncorrelated with the market as a whole, I would suggest using a risk-free discount rate. The yield of 5- to 10-year treasury bonds is currently around 9 percent why onto you use that rate instead. See you on Monday. † [pick] [pick] *Note: The production decline rates – shown near the top of the spreadsheet – are highly correlated. If you have rapid decline in the first year, you are likely to have rapid decline in subsequent years as well. Similarly, if you have slow decline in the first year, you are likely to have slow decline in subsequent years. To capture this dependence, we need to vary all of the decline rates together. How to cite Simulation, Papers

My Dream School free essay sample

Third Period: Board Games: This class will give students the strategic part of their day. In the Board Games Class, students will attempt to think two steps ahead of their opponents while playing either chess or scrabble. This class is an elective. Fourth Period: Wilderness Survival: Students will be taught great life lessons from this class. They will be able to survive in any wilderness for a minimum of one week. They will be taught how to ration, keep sane, and proper survival technique. Fifth and Sixth Period: During fifth and sixth period, students will have an assembly every day. In these assemblVs, students will listen to people whose lives have been perfect without a legitimate education. If you register your child now. your child and the rest of your family will get a chance to fly to Nelson Mandelas home and have a conversation with him about his childhood. We will write a custom essay sample on My Dream School or any similar topic specifically for you Do Not WasteYour Time HIRE WRITER Only 13.90 / page Seventh Period: And finally, the class that you have been waltlng for. Since our school Is named Ameer Alls school for Kids who cant Read Good, we do not offer English courses; that does not mean we cannot offer Mathematics, Science or History. Throughout the eek, students must take these three classes once per week. My Dream School By ameerali1999 Ameer Alis School For Kids Who Cant Read Good Hello and welcome to Ameer Alis School For Kids Who Cant Read Good! Our wonderful little school is specialized in non-educational subjects, so that students Ameer Alis School for Kids Who Cant Read Good admits only sixty students per year. Sleeping or Cooking. Sleeping: We know some people arent morning people, so for this reason, we offer a sleeping course. Cooking: Students underestimate the power f a hearty breakfast